The Race to a Billion: Android Predicted to Reach 1 Billion Users well Before iOS
With 2013 in full swing, Horace Dediu of Aysmco takes another look at which platforms are leading the pack in the race to a billion. While Horace includes a plethora of platforms, we’ll take a close look at the two we’re most concerned about: Android and iOS.
A quick glance at the Platform Adoption Ramps and you’ll notice Android has managed to surpass iOS in total user base and is on the path to reach 1 billion users well before iOS. These are compelling numbers when compared to the multitude of other platforms that have not only been around longer than Android, but have failed to even come close to the billion mark.
Facebook has already managed to cross the finish line, however, Horace points out that the slopes of both Android and iOS point towards an eventual overtake in overall ecosystem size.
Other interesting trends pointed out by Horace include:
- Game consoles seem to saturate at below 100 million total. One can see the difference in ramps between recent mobile platforms and consoles in the second chart. There might be implications for which platforms will end up dominating the entertainment industry. There should also be some explanations of why consoles are so limited.
- iTunes accelerated with iOS and left the iPod behind. This is unsurprising but it shows that a content platform can be more flexible than one attached to any particular device or architecture. An important lesson perhaps for those in the content businesses.
- Early mobile platforms like Nokia’s Symbian, RIM BlackBerry and Windows Mobile have faded indicating that there was no early-mover advantage in platforms. The same can be said for early PC platforms.
- Windows Phone began by tracking the Android/iOS ramps but seems not to be accelerating into its second year in a way that implies potential parity.
You’re going to want to go and pick up a nice bottle of bubbly as Android is expected to reach 1 billion users at some point in 2013. Of course, iOS users will have to wait until 2014 to celebrate — which I’m sure it bound to cause some serious butt hurt.